Sunday, October 17, 2010

Craig Burrows withdraws from Calgary Mayoral Race

With the sudden withdrawal of Craig Burrows from the Calgary mayoral race, the FDA made updates to its Calgary audit report:

As of October 17th, Burrows withdrew his candidacy for mayor, in favor of supporting the mayor candidacy of McIver. (Apparently, based on recent polls, Burrows felt his chances of becoming mayor was unlikely.)

So with Burrows no longer in the Calgary mayor race, the FDA audit results are adjusted to the following:

1. Jon Lord 57/100 57% (D+)
2. Barb Higgins 53.8/100 53.8% (D)
3. Naheed Nenshi 51.8/100 51.8% (D)
4. Richard McIver 43.8/90 48.6% (F)
5. Joe Connelly 42.7/90 47.4% (F)
6. Dan Knight 46.8/100 46.8% (F)
7. Barry Erskine 38/90 42.2% (F)
8. Bonnie Devine 29/100 29% (F)

Jon Lord is the FDA's better representative for Calgary, with a 3.2% margin over Higgins, and then followed closely by Nenshi and McIver.

The separation between Lord and Higgins comes down to Lord's stronger background, in which he received the FDA's highest grade for background (85%), while Higgins received 43% for her background. (The FDA's background audit entailed analysis of political, professional, and volunteer experiences.) Though Hawkesworth who had a background grade of 81.6% is now supporting Higgins, does not overcome the background discrepancy between Lord and Higgins, because only one person can be mayor. Yet Hawkesworth has the potential to be a valuable advisor to Higgins. Moreover, Burrows with a background score 70% would be less valuable to McIver who received a background score of 78.3%, and the same is the case for Stewart who received a background score of 43.3% and Nenshi a score of 48.3%.

Clearly, in terms of leadership, a key component of being mayor, Higgins has the most to gain from the support of Hawkesworth. In terms of policies, there is no clear advantage to Higgins, Nenshi, or McIver in terms of the support of Hawkesworth, Stewart, and Burrows. Though overall, McIver overtook Nenshi through his partnership with Burrows, and Higgins expanded her margin over McIver and Nenshi, and closed the gap on Lord.

To illustrate, the FDA combined the scores of the three teams of candidates:

Higgins/Hawkesworth   53.8/100   58.7/100  112.5/100  (56.25%)
Nenshi/Stewart             51.8/100   47.8/100     99.6/200  (49.8%)
McIver/Burrows            43.8/100      52/100     95.8/190  (50.4%)

Overall Scores and Ranking of Aligned and Non-aligned Candidates:

1. Jon Lord (57%) (D+)
2. Higgins/Hawkesworth (56.25%) (D+)
3. McIver/Burrows  (50.4%) (D)
4. Nenshi/Stewart  (49.8%) (F)
5. Joe Connelly 42.7/90 47.4% (F)
6. Dan Knight 46.8/100 46.8% (F)
7. Barry Erskine 38/90 42.2% (F)
8. Bonnie Devine 29/100 29% (F)

FDA's Calgary Mayoral Audit Report

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